Know Your Odds Before You Commit to a Bid
SpikeCore AI calculates a calibrated win probability for every opportunity — combining capability match, incumbency advantage, competitive landscape, price competitiveness, and relationship strength into one score your leadership can act on.
Score Your Pipeline TodayBidding Blind is Expensive
The average cost of a lost government bid ranges from $50,000 to $500,000 in staff time, external consultants, and opportunity cost.
Most bid decisions are made on instinct and revenue pressure rather than objective analysis — teams pursue opportunities they have little realistic chance of winning.
Without win probability data, pipeline reviews become subjective debates rather than data-driven prioritisation sessions.
Incumbent advantage, relationship strength, and price positioning are invisible factors that determine outcomes — yet almost no team measures them systematically.
How Win Probability Scoring Works
Opportunity Profiling
The system analyses the RFP to extract the key win factors: technical complexity, evaluation weights, eligibility criteria, contract value, and timeline pressure.
Multi-Factor Scoring
Your organisation is scored across the proven predictors of bid success: capability match, past performance relevance, incumbency position, competitive density, price competitiveness, and relationship strength with the buyer.
Calibrated Probability
Scores are combined using a sigmoid-weighted model calibrated against real-world bid outcome data to produce a win probability percentage with confidence range.
Pipeline Prioritisation
All live opportunities are ranked by win probability so your team knows exactly where to focus bid effort, allocate senior resources, and when to walk away.
Key Benefits
Replace gut-feel bid decisions with objective, data-backed scores
Identify your highest-probability opportunities across the entire pipeline
Surface hidden risk factors — incumbency, competition density, price gaps — before you commit resources
Give leadership a single number to anchor pursuit investment decisions
Track score changes as new information emerges — corrigenda, pre-bid meetings, competitor signals
Ready to get started?
Join organizations already winning more bids with AI-powered responses.
Score Your Pipeline Today